Yesterday, the New York Times ran a story about the increase of the homicide rate among black teens.  I’ve mentioned before how I hate stories like these. I always feel like the media uses them to remind everyone to be very afraid of the big black bogeyman. Now it seems the Times’ very on freakonomics blogger is debunking the story, or at least claiming it’s devious.  

 

Steve Levitt took a more accurate approach to the homicide report, unlike the hilarious Billy Sunday over at Dallas Penn who tried to make a correlation between the black teen mortality rate and decreasing gangsta rap sales.

 

 

Billy asked for a more serious take on this issue. So, Via Ta-Nehisi,  Levitt on the real numbers:

The numbers in The New York Times graphic and most of the James Alan Fox report fail to control for the change in the population of young black males over this time period.

 

According to U.S. Cenus data, the number of blacks aged 15 to 19 rose by about 15 percent between 2000 and 2007.

 

So even if any individual black teen’s propensity for crime was unchanged over this time period, the aggregate amount of black-teen crime would have risen by 15 percent. In other words, in that New York Times graphic on perpetrators, just based on changes in population, the number of perpetrators would have been expected to rise from a little over 800 to nearly 1,000. Knowing that, the actual rise to roughly 1,150 doesn’t seem that noteworthy. [Freakonomics]

 

While any form of black on black violence is unacceptable, it’s refreshing to hear that things aren’t as bad as the New York Times story claimed.  And, to see someone scrutinize an otherwise alarming topic.

 

I  had to read Levitt’s “Freakonomics” book while I was at  ’SC.  The guy can turn a dull subject into lively dinner conversation.  I’m looking forward to what he thinks the feds can do to alleviate crime in black communities. In his book, he had a whole chapter on so-called “ethnic” names and how they can or can not effect a person’s job prospects.  His take on this issue should be just as interesting.

 

Some radical new ideas need to be brought forth to help poorer communities. Last month, we talked here about how non-profits aren’t getting the money they need to help folk who desperately need it.  If the feds aren’t going to pump money into after school programs, or other gang/drug prevention organizations, they need to take up a positive alternative, pronto. Otherwise, the homicide rate for everybody, not just black teens, may actually rise.

Tags: Billy Sunday, Black Teen Homicide Rate, Freakonomics, Homeboy Industries, New York Times, Steve Levitt, Ta-Nehisi Coates